
Spring 2024
Total U.S. climate disaster cost
Compound flooding is no longer a tail risk. It is the base case.
87% of IEA member countries already carry medium or high flood exposure. The Fifth National Climate Assessment confirms that simultaneous extreme events — river flooding coinciding with storm surge — are accelerating along U.S. coastlines. For infrastructure bondholders, the twenty-year rainfall projection has become a credit variable.
U.S. disaster costs, 2015–2024 (190 events)
People displaced by floods and storms annually since 2008
"Medium confidence that compound flooding probability has increased in some locations, including along the U.S. coastline."— IPCC AR6
Fire weather conditions will become more frequent. The IPCC gives this high confidence.
The western wildfire season now extends from June through November. California, Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Montana, and Colorado face enhanced risk for weeks at a time. For real estate portfolios with exposure in these zones, insurability is no longer a given — it is a quarterly variable.
Western wildfire damage, 2017–2021 (2024 dollars)
World's land area exposed to increasingly severe drought
"High confidence that fire weather conditions will become more frequent at higher levels of global warming."— IPCC AR6
EBITDA Risk by 2050
Projected reduction for exposed portfolios

Hurricane Milton, 2024
Category 3 landfall near Tampa, FL
Eleven hurricanes. Five U.S. landfalls. One repricing event for coastal real estate.
The 2024 Atlantic season tied 1995 for fifth highest storm count on record. Hurricane Helene — seventh-most-costly Atlantic hurricane in history — delivered 15 feet of storm surge along the Big Bend coast and 30+ inches of rainfall across western North Carolina. For underwriters, the question is no longer whether to reprice. It is how fast.
2024 U.S. Landfalling Hurricanes
Hurricane Helene
Big Bend, FL — 7th costliest Atlantic storm on record
Hurricane Milton
Tampa, FL — Category 3 landfall Oct 9, 2024
Hurricane Beryl
Texas Gulf Coast — earliest Category 5 on record
Atlantic hurricanes in 2024 — tied for 5th highest on record
Storm surge, Big Bend coast — Helene landfall
The year has completed its cycle. The question is now unavoidable.
Compound extremes — disasters occurring simultaneously across multiple locations — are accelerating. Climate-related losses have surged from $12 billion annually in 1980 to nearly $120 billion today. The climate consulting market is growing at 10.21% annually because the cost of not knowing has become quantifiable.
U.S. disaster costs since 1980 (403 events)
Annual climate losses today vs. $12B in 1980
Market Context
Financial services leads at 12.85% annual growth as prudential supervisors embed climate risk into capital frameworks. Risk Assessment & Scenario Analysis holds 22.95% market share in 2025.
14th Consecutive Year
Billion-dollar U.S. disasters — record streak